Gender stereotypes are still pervasive in our culture Essay Example for Free

Gender stereotypes are still pervasive in our culture Essay TOPIC AND RATIONALE Gender stereotyping is a topic we find all around us and without exception in early years settings. There is a set of notions about how girls/women and boys/men are expected to behave in society, therefore is very difficult not to transmit those ideas in Early Education. Often we find children which already have implemented a gender role and behave based on our assigned sex. I have chosen this subject because I am aware, as I have to deal with that every single day, of how gender stereotype affects people. I believe the best way to fight this issue is through education and promoting gender equality in early childhood settings. At my placement I have already seen several situations where girls dress in pink as they consider is their favorite color, draw and wish to be princesses and would like to be ballerinas when they grow up. Boys spend all the playground time playing football or using their imaginary gangs, dressing in dark colors or not allowing girls playing in the building construction area claiming that is not a game for them. Being personally affected and observing this conduct in young children at the childhood practice setting and in the nursery where I work, was my motivation to write about this interesting topic, which in some situations touch children subtlety, and in others can trigger a negative impact affecting in many ways their being. AIM AND OBJECTIVES My target is to find out if gender equality is promoted in early years settings. RELEVANT THEORIES AND APPROACHES to children’s learning and development and links with knowledge acquired through the HNC HOW TOPIC LINKS TO CHILDREN’S INDIVIDUAL NEEDS, RIGHTS, AND INTERESTS Gender Equality is at the core of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC) which outlines in a few articles the relevance of the equality rights for all children independently of their gender. The Article 2 is directly related to the topic chosen and promotes non-discrimination. The Article 12 and 13 determinates the respect for the views of the child and their freedom of expression. Both of them encourage children to express their thoughts and feelings freely. Those right are important in the subject because their voices can be taken seriously if they feel affected by gender discrimination. The Articles 28 and 29 talk about rights and goals of education. Those articles promote education with the respect of the human rights including themselves, addressing gender discrimination and supporting equality among girls and boys. Finally, we have to have into consideration Article 4 which states that governments have to create systems and laws to promote and protect children rights, enabling all the above rights possible. Here a summary of the articles mentioned are shown: †¢ Article 2 – â€Å"The Convention applies to every child without discrimination, whatever their ethnicity, gender, religion, language, abilities or any other status, whatever they think or say, whatever their family background.† †¢ Article 12 – â€Å"Every child has the right to express their views, feelings, and wishes in all matters affecting them, and to have their views considered and taken seriously. This right applies at all times, for example during immigration proceedings, housing decisions or the child’s day-to-day home life.† †¢ Article 13 – â€Å"Every child must be free to express their thoughts and opinions and to access all kinds of information, as long as it is within the law.† †¢ Article 28 –â€Å"Every child has the right to an education. Primary education must be free and different forms of secondary education must be available to every child. Discipline in schools must respect children’s dignity and their rights. Richer countries must help poorer countries achieve this.† †¢ Article 29 – â€Å"Education must develop every child’s personality, talents, and abilities to the full. It must encourage the child’s respect for human rights, as well as respect for their parents, their own and other cultures, and the environment.† †¢ Article 4 – â€Å"Governments must do all they can to make sure every child can enjoy their rights by creating systems and passing laws that promote and protect children’s rights.†

A General Theory of Crime Essay -- Crime Theory Essays

Crime is a serious issue in the United States. Research shows that crime is running rampant and its effects are felt in all socioeconomic levels. Each economic class has its own crime rates and types of crime. It is a mistake to think of crime as a lower class problem. Crime is a problem for all people. The lower classes commit crime for survival while the upper class commits crime to supplement capital and maintain control. Research also highlight that middle class crime is the most popular while lower class neighborhoods are deteriorating. This paper will focus on â€Å"A General Theory of Crime† using classical theory (Schmalleger, 2001, p.96-98), such as the relationship between crime and socioeconomic class structure. The essential nature of crime and results of scientific and popular conceptions of crime. In reading the book, there is a broad perspective and comprehensive explanations of crime per se, as well as a breakdown of crime under capitalistic system of government. In doing this the authors explore the typical patterns of crime associated with specific classes and attempts by the state to regulate and control capitalist marketplace activities and working class life. An important theme also highlighted was dynamic and contradictory relationship between the structural reproduction of capitalism and capitalist methods of crime control. The actual patterns of social relations are determined by the economy, institutionalized forms of the state or political power, and associated forms of culture and ideology (Gottfredson, 1998). Modes of behavior and their definition as criminal vary accordingly. Class structure gives rise to different types of criminality, which relate fundamentally to the needs of the dominant minority to control the laboring majority. Such a pattern ensures the continual production of social wealth, but it also ensures a continuation of economic exploitation and class struggle over the distribution of social surplus. Crime is simply one such expression of this class struggle, an endemic feature based upon the functional and dysfunctional characteristics of living in a class-based economic system. There is no perfect way of measuring crime, and it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to know exactly how much crime is going on in any particular jurisdiction at any given time. To a certain extent, crime or criminality is ... ...her and are recognized by many as central to any theoretical discussion of continuity in deviant behavior. Each of these theories implies processes and contingencies by which actors develop, maintain, and change sources of structural, personal, and moral commitment to deviance. More importantly, the commitment framework specifies potential factors that these theories either merely imply or fail to recognize†. (Ulmer 1994) Reference Gottfredson, M.R., Hirschi, T. (1998). A General Theory of Crime. Stanford University Press: Stanford California.83, 118, 158,159, 181, 195 Schmalleger, F. (2001). Criminal Justice Today: An Introductory Text For The Twenty-First Century, 7th Edition. Prentice Hall. 96-98, 116-117 Siegel, L. (2001) Criminology, Theories, Patterns, and Typologies-7th Edition. Wadsworth, a Division of Thomson Learning. 52, 227-228 Ulmer, Jeffery T. (1994). Sociological Quarterly, Summer2000, Vol. 41 Issue 3, p315, 22p, 1 chart. Academic Search Premier Vazsonyi, Alexander T.; Pickering, Lloyd E.; Junger, Marianne; Hessing, Dick (2001). Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, May2001, Vol. 38 Issue 2, p91, 41p, 2 diagrams Academic Search Premier

Nanotechnology in Aeviation Essay

†¢Nanotechnology in Aerospace Materials †¢Introduction Figure 1. The aerospace industry is under pressure to improve it’s environmental footprint, primarily by making aircraft more efficient. Image credit: Bureau of Labor Statistics. †¢There are few industries where the applications of nanotechnology are so clearly beneficial as in the aerospace industry. The primary development goals match almost exactly with the advantages offered by using various nanomaterials in the place of traditional bulk metals like steel. †¢The aerospace industry is one of the most important heavy industries in the world. Countless companies rely on the ability to ship products and people around the world with the speed that can only by achieved by air. The aircraft manufacturing market was worth xxx billion in 20xx, and the bulk of this was accounted for by military spending. †¢Along with this huge economic value, however, comes huge consumption, and one of the largest carbon footprints on the planet relative to the size of the market. For this reason, the major drivers in current aerospace R&D are towards lighter construction materials and more efficient engines – the overall goal being to reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions associated with air travel and air freight. The significant interest in nanotechnology for the aerospace industry is justified by the potential of nanomaterials and nanoengineering to help the industry achieve this goal. †¢This article will review some of the nanomaterials which are already being applied in aerospace manufacturing, and the benefits they can provide. †¢Nanostructured Metals †¢Bulk metals with some nanoscale structure are already widely used in aircraft manufacturing. It is now well known that nanostructured metals – exhibit considerably improved properties compared to their counterparts with microscale or larger grain structure. †¢This is particularly noticeable for properties which are crucial for materials used in aircraft – primarily yield strength, tensile strength and corrosion resistance, coupled with low density which helps keep the total weight of the aircraft down. †¢ †¢Figure 2. Bulk nanostructured metals exhibit much better mechanical properties and corrosion resistance than their counterparts with larger crystal structures. Image credit: Los Alamos National Laboratory. †¢Polymer Nanocomposites †¢Various nanomaterials have been used as filler materials to enhance the properties of structural and non-structural polymers used in aircraft construction. The most commonly used nanomaterials include nanoclays, carbon nanotubes, nanofibres, and graphene. †¢Carbon nanotubes in particular have been shown to give excellent advantages when used as fillers in various polymers, due to their exceptional stiffness, toughness, and unique electrical properties. †¢Nanocomposites typically have superb weight-to-strength ratios, and enhanced resilience to vibration and fire, making them ideal for use in the aviation industry. The properties of the nanofillers, like the conductivity of nanotubes, for example, can create interesting opportunities for multifunctional materials. †¢The properties of polymers enhanced by nanomaterial fillers are so well-tuned to the requirements of aircraft manufacturers, that they are actually being used to replace some of the metals used in the airframes. This obviously brings along huge weight savings, and often cost savings as well. †¢Tribological and Anti-Corrosion Coatings †¢Another major trend in the materials used in aircraft is towards nanocoatings to enhance the durability of metals. In particular, magnesium alloys, which are far lighter than steel or aluminium, are prone to corrosion, due to the high chemical reactivity of magnesium. Coatings can help prevent corrosion, but the type typically used contain chromium complexes which are a highly toxic pollutant. †¢Materials used for these novel anti-corrosion nanocoatings include silicon and boron oxides, and cobalt-phosphorous nanocrystals. †¢Nanocoatings are also now being used on turbine blades and other mechanical components which have to withstand high temperatures and friction wear. Tribological coatings can drastically lower the friction coefficient and improve resistance to wear – this greatly improves the efficiency of the engines. †¢Many nanostructured and nanoscale  coating materials have been suggested as possible friction modifying agents, such as carbides, nitrides, metals, and various ceramics. †¢ †¢Figure 3. The defense sector drives a lot of the innovation in many industries, and aerospace is no exception. High-performance military aircraft require exceptional materials, which will eventually find their way into commercial vehicles. Image credit: Penn State University. †¢Conclusion †¢This is just a brief overview of some of the nanomaterials being used in aerospace. The drive for lighter and more efficient air vehicles has led to the rapid adoption of nanotechnology in aerospace manufacturing. †¢The main roadblock, as with many industries looking to adopt nanotechnology, is caused by uncertainty over the environmental and health and safety implications of these materials. Whilst nanomaterials can often be less toxic than the current materials used, the effects of long-term exposure to these novel materials are still uncertain. †¢The potential of nanotechnology in the aerospace industry cannot be denied, however. Outside of airframe and component materials, nanotechnology applications have been found in lubricants, fuel, adhesives and many other areas. †¢Nanotechnology is also helping engineers to create vehicles with the necessary properties to endure the harsh conditions of space.

Crimes in Rwandan Genocide, the Algerian War, and the...

In the twentieth century there were many horrific events where civilians were sought out to be exploited in very violent manners. There were many conflicts that display this form of violence against humans in the twentieth century, but the 3 that stand out and best represent are the Rwandan Genocide, the Algerian War, along with the most horrific display of violence against civilians, the Holocaust. These 3 instances are geographically diverse as well as being 3 completely different forms of violent crimes carried out among civilians. This essay will show not only the different conflicts that took place but the variety of violent crimes taken out on the human race itself. The Rwandan Genocide which took place in Rwanda in the year 1994, took place because of the battle for power. The Hutu Government had been internally conflicted by the balance of power between the landowners themselves and the people that worked those lands. The first spark happened when the UN tried to negotiate a multi-party constitution, which had failed miserably. This was all due in part to the fact that the Hutu opposed any Tutsi involvement in the government. In that time the president of Rwanda was in a plane that was shot down most likely carried out and executed by the extremist, who happened to be on the side of the Hutu. This triggered everything that the Hutu had been planning for; their reign and terror of taking over Rwanda and overtaking the government of Rwanda was finally in full force.Show MoreRelatedOne Significant Change That Has Occurred in the World Between 1900 and 2005. Explain the Impact This Change Has Made on Our Lives and Why It Is an Important Change.163893 Words   |  656 Pages Agricultural and Pastoral Societies in Ancient and Classical History Jack Metzgar, Striking Steel: Solidarity Remembered Janis Appier, Policing Women: The Sexual Politics of Law Enforcement and the LAPD Allen Hunter, ed., Rethinking the Cold War Eric Foner, ed., The New American History. Revised and Expanded Edition E SSAYS ON _ T WENTIETH- C ENTURY H ISTORY Edited by Michael Adas for the American Historical Association TEMPLE UNIVERSITY PRESS PHILADELPHIA Temple

Information Based And Is Execution Driven - 1997 Words

Assessment 1 Sid:- 22071781 Introduction The 21st century has carried with it another working environment, one in which everybody must adjust to a quickly hanging society with always moving requests and open doors. The economy has ended up worldwide and is driven by developments and innovation and associations need to change themselves to serve new client desires. Today s economy presents testing open doors and additionally sensational instability. The new economy has gotten to be information based and is execution driven. The topics in the present connection region regard , interest, strengthening, collaboration and self administration. In the light of the above difficulties another sort of pioneer is expected to guide business through turbulence. Managers in associations do this assignment. A Manager is somebody who organizes and manages the work of other individuals so that hierarchical objectives can be refined. It is not about individual accomplishment but rather helping other people carry out their employment. Supervisors may likewise have extra work obligations not related to organizing the work of others. Managers can be arranged by their level in the organization, especially in customarily organized organizations use these models like a pyramid:- 1) First-line administrators (frequently called supervisors) are situated on the most minimal level of administration. 2) Middle level Management (frequently called managers) incorporate all levels ofShow MoreRelatedUsing Advanced Programming Frameworks, Conduct, And Arrangement1148 Words   |  5 Pagesthese frameworks experiences consistent change Model-driven execution designing, not withstanding, accept static framework structures, conduct, and arrangement. Thus, self-versatile frameworks stance new difficulties to model-driven operational efficiency. There are a couple overviews on self-versatile frameworks, operational efficiency, and the blend of both in the writing. As opposed to existing work, here we center on model-driven execution examination approaches. Present day business data frameworksRead MoreReport On Demand Driven Software Vulnerability Detection For C Program1252 Words   |  6 PagesCritique Report on Demand-Driven Software Vulnerability Detection for C Program Software Vulnerability is an unintended flaw in software code or system that leaves it open to the potential for exploitation in the form of unauthorized access or malicious behavior such as viruses, worm and other forms of malware [12]. In order to avoid vulnerabilities in a software, security testing has been implemented, which helps in detecting software vulnerabilities effectively. Some of the methods which helpRead MoreDevelopment Of A Simulation Management System1303 Words   |  6 Pagesconcepts of model-driven engineering, intelligent agent technology, and variability modeling to support the management of the lifecycle of a simulation experiment. The Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) methodology provides a framework and strategy to move from the platform-independent experiment domain space to the technical space involving platform-specific executable simulation experiment scripts. Experiment design modeling is introduced for configurable experiment synthesis and execution. Feat ure-orientedRead MoreNne Fast Track Projects874 Words   |  4 Pagesspecification-driven to time-driven. Trust had to be created with the customer by sharing risks. An investment in team building was made and a company culture focused on project execution. Customers and suppliers were made part of the implementation team fostering information sharing between all parties involved in the construction. Analysis Findings In this section, we are going to discuss the analysis findings behind NNE implemented strategy, the fast-track project execution and the managementRead MoreThe Process Of Integrated Environments In The Software Testing Environment957 Words   |  4 Pagesresult. The desired result include actions such as better quality, low costs and short executions of the software. In (2015), Romano et al. proposed a strategy of deploying software testing tools in an integrated environment to increase the productivity of software development. The integrated software-testing environment consists of different automated tools that provide a better quality, maintain consistency in execution of tests. The tests in the environment are structured automatically by reducing theRead MoreEssay On Data Deduplication1383 Words   |  6 Pagesbeing stored in duplicates in cloud server. Information deduplication has been exhibited to be a successful method in Cloud reinforcement and documenting applications to lessen the reinforcement window, enhance the storage room efï ¬ ciency and system data transfer capacity usage. For instance, the ideal opportunity for the live VM movement in the Cloud can be signiï ¬ cantly diminished by embracing the information deduplication innovation. The current information deduplication plans for essential storageRead MoreOffice Of Strategy Management : Importance Of Central Control1030 Words   |  5 PagesRobert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton, operations strategy management should be a total, cross-functional effort stemming from a central department for coordination and execution (Kaplan Norton, 2008). Operation Strategy is a forecasted plan stating how an organization will allocate resources to support production. The strategy is driven by the overall business strategy of the organization, and is designed to maximize the effectiveness of production and support elements while minimizing costs (BusinessRead MoreFraud Management : An Architectural Insight1144 Words   |  5 Pagesdriver being the new payment channels, data breaches (compromise of PII/PCI data) , no card present scenarios; The endless list including non-standardized shipping addresses, billing address different from shipping address, High Value/High risk asset based transactions, Internal Fraud, OFAC lists, account take over, fraud over non web ch annels – like IVR but not limited to is always growing. Depending on the organization’s risk appetite, available investment and policies, everyone can adapt a differentRead MoreDeduplication Ap Case Study1451 Words   |  6 PagesPerformance Optimization for Deduplication-based Storage Systems in the Cloud. ACM Transactions on Storage. Author: B. Mao, H. Jiang, S. Wu, Y. Fu, and L. Tian Information deduplication has been exhibited to be a successful method in decreasing the aggregate information exchanged over the system and the storage room in cloud reinforcement, filing, and essential stockpiling frameworks, for example, VM (virtual machine) stages. In any case, the execution of reestablish operations from a deduplicatedRead MoreStrategic Business Analysis Paper : Mara 4661633 Words   |  7 PagesBusiness Analysis Paper Why Strategy Execution Unravels – and What to Do About It There has been a large amount of research into what strategy is, since Michael Porter’s perennial work in the 1980s. Studies done on the execution of strategy have been far less numerous. However, there is one major understanding about the execution of strategy. The execution of strategy is a vital part of success in business. A summary of many myths surrounding various strategic executions will be outlined, along with their

Movie Analysis The Heart Of Hollywood Cinema By...

â€Å"After nourishment, shelter and companionship, stories are the thing we need most in the world.† (Pullman, year). Storytelling has always been at the heart of Hollywood cinema. Revisiting the theories of Propp we can see the difference between a films story and its discourse, a story is what is being told where as the narrative is how it is told - â€Å"[a story is] An account of a string of events occurring in space and time†¦ a narrative presents an order of events connected by the logic of cause and effect† (Pramaggiore Wallis, 2008) Thus, it is through a films narrative that Hollywood tells its audience the story. In Thomas Elsaesser and Warren Buckland’s book Studying Contemporary American Film: A Guide to Movie Analysis narration is described as â€Å"How information reaches the audience and is mentally or emotionally processed†¦the function of filmic narration is to guide the eye and cue the mind†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Elsaesser Buckland, 2002) H ollywood storytelling is a tradition, since the 1920’s it has followed the same basic structure, however in contemporary Hollywood cinema many creative filmmakers, through the development of characters and deepening of plots, have found fresh ways to explore how a story is told (Bordwell, 2006). One of the most interesting developments in contemporary cinema of the past twenty years has been the surge of mainstream films that have come to move away from the traditions of Hollywood narrative and have introduced more complex and challenging narratives.

Time Series Models Free Essays

string(161) " of this model is that only two historical pieces of information need to be carried: the mean itself and the number of observations on which the mean was based\." TIME SERIES MODELS Time series analysis provides tools for selecting a model that can be used to forecast of future events. Time series models are based on the assumption that all information needed to generate a forecast is contained in the time series of data. The forecaster looks for patterns in the data and tries to obtain a forecast by projecting that pattern into the future. We will write a custom essay sample on Time Series Models or any similar topic only for you Order Now A forecasting method is a (numerical) procedure for generating a forecast. When such methods are not based upon an underlying statistical model, they are termed heuristic. A statistical (forecasting) model is a statistical description of the data generating process from which a forecasting method may be derived. Forecasts are made by using a forecast function that is derived from the model. WHAT IS A TIME SERIES? A time series is a sequence of observations over time. A  time series  is a sequence of  data points, measured typically at successive time instants spaced at uniform time intervals. A time series is a sequence of observations of a random variable. Hence, it is a stochastic process. Examples include the monthly demand for a product, the annual freshman enrollment in a department of a university, and the daily volume of flows in a river. Forecasting time series data is important component of operations research because these data often provide the foundation for decision models. An inventory model requires estimates of future demands, a course scheduling and staffing model for a university requires estimates of future student inflow, and a model for providing warnings to the population in a river basin requires estimates of river flows for the immediate future. * TWO MAIN GOALS: There are two main goals of time series analysis: (a) identifying the nature of the phenomenon represented by the sequence of observations, and (b) forecasting (predicting future values of the time series variable). Both of these goals require that the pattern of observed time series data is identified and more or less formally described. Once the pattern is established, we can interpret and integrate it with other data (e. g. , seasonal commodity prices). Regardless of the depth of our understanding and the validity of our interpretation (theory) of the phenomenon, we can extrapolate the identified pattern to predict future events. Several methods are described in this chapter, along with their strengths and weaknesses. Although most are simple in concept, the computations required to estimate parameters and perform the analysis are tedious enough that computer implementation is essential. The easiest way to identify patterns is to plot the data and examine the resulting graphs. If we did that, what could we observe? There are four basic patters, which are shown in Figure 1. Any of these patterns, or a combination of them, can be present in a time series of data: 1. Level or horizontal This pattern exists when data values fluctuate around a constant mean. This is the simplest pattern and easiest to predict. A  horizontal  pattern is observed when the values of the time series fluctuate around a constant mean. Such time series is also called  stationery. In Retail data, stationery time series can be found easily since there are products which sales roughly the same amount of items every period. In the stock market however, it’s difficult (if not impossible) to find horizontal patterns. Most of the time series there are non-stationery. Time series with horizontal patterns are very easy to forecast. 2. Trend When data exhibit an increasing or decreasing pattern over time, we say that they exhibit a trend. The trend can be upward or upward. The  trend  pattern is straightforward. It consists of a long-term increase or decrease of the values of the time series. Trend patterns are easy to forecast and are very profitable when found by stock traders. 3. Seasonality Any pattern that regularly repeats itself and is of a constant length is a seasonal pattern is. Such seasonality exists when the variable ewe are trying to forecast is influenced by seasonal factors such as the quarter or month of the year or day of the week. A time series with  seasonal  patterns are more difficult to forecast but not too difficult. The values of these time series are influenced by seasonal factors, such as the turkey in Christmas period. Also, ice cream sales are affected by seasonality. People buy more ice creams during the summer. Forecasting algorithms which can deal with the seasonality can be used for forecasting such time series. Holt-Winters’ method is one such algorithm. 4. Cycles Cyclical  patterns are usually confused with the seasonal patterns. While seasonal patterns are influenced by seasonal factors, cyclical patterns do not necessarily have a fixed period. A seasonal pattern can be cyclical, but a cyclical is not necessarily seasonal. Cyclical patterns are the most difficult to forecast. Most forecasting tools can deal with seasonality, trend and horizontal time series but very few can offer acceptable forecasts to cyclical patterns unless there is some sort of indication as to how the cycle evolves. Random Variation is unexplained variation that cannot be predicted. The more random variation a data set has, the harder it is to forecast accurately. In practice, forecasts derived by these methods are likely to be modified by the analyst upon considering information not available from the historical data. We should understand that to obtain a good forecast the forecasting model should be matched to the patterns in the available data. TIME SERIES METHODS The Naive Method Among the time-series models, the simplest is the naive forecast. A naive forecast simply uses the actual demand for the past period as the forecasted demand for the next period. This, of course, makes the assumption that the past will repeat. An example of naive forecasting is presented in Table 1. Table 1 Naive Forecasting Period| Actual Demand (000’s)| Forecast (000’s)| January| 45| | February| 60| 45| March| 72| 60| April| 58| 72| May| 40| 58| June| | 40| This model is only good for a level data pattern. One of the advantages of this model is that only two historical pieces of information need to be carried: the mean itself and the number of observations on which the mean was based. You read "Time Series Models" in category "Essay examples" Averaging Method Another simple technique is the use of averaging. To make a forecast using averaging, one simply takes the average of some number of periods of past data by summing each period and dividing the result by the number of periods. This technique has been found to be very effective for short-range forecasting. Variations of averaging include the moving average, the weighted average, and the weighted moving average. A moving average takes a predetermined number of periods, sums their actual demand, and divides by the number of periods to reach a forecast. For each subsequent period, the oldest period of data drops off and the latest period is added. Assuming a three-month moving average and using the data from Table 1, one would simply add 45 (January), 60 (February), and 72 (March) and divide by three to arrive at a forecast for April: 45 + 60 + 72 = 177 ? 3 = 59 To arrive at a forecast for May, one would drop January’s demand from the equation and add the demand from April. Table 2 presents an example of a three-month moving average forecast. Table 2 Three Month Moving Average Forecast Period| Actual Demand (000’s)| Forecast (000’s)| January| 45| | February| 60| | March| 72| | April| 58| 59| May| 40| 63| June| | 57| A weighted average applies a predetermined weight to each month of past data, sums the past data from each period, and divides by the total of the weights. If the forecaster adjusts the weights so that their sum is equal to 1, then the weights are multiplied by the actual demand of each applicable period. The results are then summed to achieve a weighted forecast. Generally, the more recent the data the higher the weight, and the older the data the smaller the weight. Using the demand example, a weighted average using weights of . 4, . 3, . , and . 1 would yield the forecast for June as:   60(. 1) + 72(. 2) + 58(. 3) + 40(. 4) = 53. 8 Forecasters may also use a combination of the weighted average and moving average forecasts. A weighted moving average forecast assigns weights to a predetermined number of periods of actual data and computes the forecast the same way as described above. As with all moving forecasts, as each new period is added, the data from the oldest pe riod is discarded. Table 3 shows a three-month weighted moving average forecast utilizing the weights . 5, . 3, and . 2. Table 3 Three–Month Weighted Moving Average Forecast Period| Actual Demand (000’s)| Forecast (000’s)| January| 45| | February| 60| | March| 72| | April| 58| 55| May| 40| 63| June| | 61| | | | Exponential Smoothing Exponential smoothing takes the previous period’s forecast and adjusts it by a predetermined smoothing constant, ? (called alpha; the value for alpha is less than one) multiplied by the difference in the previous forecast and the demand that actually occurred during the previously forecasted period (called forecast error). To make a forecast for the next time period, you eed three pieces of information: 1. The current period’s forecast 2. The current period’s actual value 3. The value of a smoothing coefficient, alpha, which varies between 0 and 1. Exponential smoothing is expressed formulaically as such: New forecast = previous forecast + alpha (actual demand ? previous forecast) A forecast for February is computed as such: New forecast (F ebruary) = 50 + . 7(45 ? 50) = 41. 5 Next, the forecast for March: New forecast (March) = 41. 5 + . 7(60 ? 41. 5) = 54. 45 This process continues until the forecaster reaches the desired period. In Table 4 this would be for the month of June, since the actual demand for June is not known. Table 4 Period| Actual Demand (000’s)| Forecast (000’s)| January| 45| 50| February| 60| 41. 5| March| 72| 54. 45| April| 58| 66. 74| May| 40| 60. 62| June| | 46. 19| Forecasting Trend There are many ways to forecast trend patterns in data. Most of the models used for forecasting trend are the same models used to forecast the level patterns, with an additional feature added to compensate for the lagging that would otherwise occur. Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing When a trend exists, the forecasting technique must consider the trend as well as the series average ignoring the trend will cause the forecast to always be below (with an increasing trend) or above (with a decreasing trend) actual demand Double exponential smoothing smooths (averages) both the series average and the trend forecast for period t+1: Ft+1  = At  + Tt average: At  =  aDt  + (1 –  a) (At-1  + Tt-1) =  aDt  + (1 –  a) Ft average trend: Tt  =  B  CTt  + (1 –  B) Tt-1 current trend: CTt  = At  Ã¢â‚¬â€œ At-1 forecast for p periods into the future: Ft+p  = At  + p Tt here: At  = exponentially smoothed average of the series in period t Tt  = exponentially smoothed average of the trend in period t CTt  = current estimate of the trend in period t a  = smoothing parameter between 0 and 1 for smoothing the averages B  = smoothing parameter between 0 and 1 for smoothing the trend Linear Trend Line Linear trend line is a time series technique that computes a forecast with trend by drawing a straight line through a set of data. The forecasting equation for the linear trend model is: Y= a + bX where t is the time index. The parameters alpha and beta (the â€Å"intercept† and â€Å"slope† of the trend line) are usually estimated via a simple regression in which Y is the dependent variable and the time index t is the independent variable. Forecasting Seasonality Recall that any regularly repeating pattern is a seasonal pattern. We are all familiar with quarterly and monthly seasonal patterns. For example, seasonality includes sales of Christmas tree before Christmas, sales of jackets, hotel registrations and sales of greeting cards. The procedure for computing seasonality consists of the following steps: 1. Calculate the average demand per season . Calculate a seasonal index for each season of each year: 3. Average the indexes by season 4. Forecast demand for the next year divide by the number of seasons 5. Multiply next year’s average seasonal demand by each average seasonal index. Selecting a Forecasting Method The selection of a forecasting method is a difficult task that must be base in part on knowledge concerning the quantity being forecast. With forecasting procedures, we are generally trying to recognize a change in the underlying process of a time series while remaining insensitive to variations caused by purely random effects. The goal of planning is to respond to fundamental changes, not to spurious effect. Bibliography: Box, G. E. P and G. M. Jenkins and G. D. Reinsel, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Control, Third Edition, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1993. Brockwell, Peter J. and Davis, Richard A. (2002). Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, 2nd. ed. , Springer-Verlang. Chatfield, C. , The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, Fifth Edition, Chapman Hall, Boca Raton, FL, 1996. Fuller, W. A. , Introduction to Statistical Time Series, Second Edition, John Wiley Sons, New York, 1996. (Electronic Version): StatSoft, Inc. 2012). Electronic Statistics Textbook. Tulsa, OK: StatSoft. WEB: http://www. statsoft. com/textbook/. (Printed Version): Hill, T. Lewicki, P. (2007). STATISTICS: Methods and Applications. StatSoft, Tulsa, OK. (Electronic Version): A First Course on Time Series Analysis  Ã¢â‚¬â€œ an open source book on time series analysis with  SAS WEB: http://www. statisti k-mathematik. uni-wuerzburg. de/wissenschaftforschung/time_series/ (Electronic Version): Forecasting – levels, examples, manager, definition, model, type, company   WEB:http://www. referenceforbusiness. com/management/Ex-Gov/Forecasting. html#b#ixzz28ty2DePJ How to cite Time Series Models, Essay examples